N+1 is the path of least resistance for industry leaders, but it insults the intelligence of cyclists and it is dissonant at a time when there clearly needs to be a serious change to how resources are used and managed to produce bicycles. Despite all the platitudes and “impact” reports, the bicycle industry knows only the dollar and will only change its ways once consumers change theirs. Earth Day is a good time to think about all of this and start making those changes.
John Burke (CEO of Trek Bicycle Corpoation) understands the Circular Economy better than he did when he was brainstorming on the white board. Mr. Burke is on the right track and he is ready to bring Trek and the entire bicycle industry kicking and screaming into the twenty-first century. If there ever was a time for a serious restructuring of the bicycle industry it is now.
John Burke is indeed the first bicycle industry professional that I am aware of to recognize that sustainability is the new gold standard for the industry (not the Tour de France).
What started out trying to be a reseller has evolved into something closer to LKQ Corporation. The only difference is that the deproduction operations of Frame and Wheel are integrated with a bicycle brand, A-D Bikes.
The pandemic ruthlessly exposed the bicycle industry’s dependency on the global supply chain and the weaknesses and vulnerabilities which are encapsulated by N+1 Thought.
The model year convention is the most explicit manifestation of N+1 Thought there is. What better way to sell another bicycle to someone who already has one than to use a date to signal that the latest model year is somehow better than the one the owner already has?
The retailer or brand is making a large investment in a range of models, colors, categories and sizes and hoping that the right person is going to walk in the door within the next twelve months and make a purchase.
The problem is that when the price point selection is broadened, the consumer is overwhelmed with too much choice. A good example of this is the Specialized Diverge gravel bike.
What drives the bicycle industry to repeatedly produce more bicycles and e-bikes each year than the market can absorb? Sunk costs. Economies of scale. Ride it out the door. A bike for every price. Model year.
N + 1 is embarrassingly out of touch. It sounds like the Schafer beer commercial from the 1970s that went “Schafer is the one beer to have when you are having more than one.”
The bicycle industry marketing machinery doesn’t know it yet, but the new gold standard is about sustainability. It is about how we wean ourselves off of N + 1 (unquestionably the most dissonant and wasteful marketing campaign in history).