The last time I was around for the double loop in 2022, it was a balmy 40 degrees by the time the ride was underway. The Gatorade flowed freely. My feet and hands were warm. I wore a wind vest and arm warmers. It felt like early spring in Maine. If I had been asked to identify a single, simple, cycling-related and personal measure of how the climate has changed over the past twenty years, this would have been it.
John Burke (CEO of Trek Bicycle Corpoation) understands the Circular Economy better than he did when he was brainstorming on the white board. Mr. Burke is on the right track and he is ready to bring Trek and the entire bicycle industry kicking and screaming into the twenty-first century. If there ever was a time for a serious restructuring of the bicycle industry it is now.
The pandemic ruthlessly exposed the bicycle industry’s dependency on the global supply chain and the weaknesses and vulnerabilities which are encapsulated by N+1 Thought.
The model year convention is the most explicit manifestation of N+1 Thought there is. What better way to sell another bicycle to someone who already has one than to use a date to signal that the latest model year is somehow better than the one the owner already has?
The retailer or brand is making a large investment in a range of models, colors, categories and sizes and hoping that the right person is going to walk in the door within the next twelve months and make a purchase.
The problem is that when the price point selection is broadened, the consumer is overwhelmed with too much choice. A good example of this is the Specialized Diverge gravel bike.
What drives the bicycle industry to repeatedly produce more bicycles and e-bikes each year than the market can absorb? Sunk costs. Economies of scale. Ride it out the door. A bike for every price. Model year.
N + 1 is embarrassingly out of touch. It sounds like the Schafer beer commercial from the 1970s that went “Schafer is the one beer to have when you are having more than one.”
The sale of e-bikes increased 11 percent (2020: 34 percent) to 5.1 million units, but growth slowed substantially due to weaker consumer demand. E-bike sales account for 23 percent of total sales in Europe due to the wider use of bicycles for personal transportation. This helped offset the slowing rate of growth in bicycle sales during the year.
The sale of e-bikes increased 42 percent (2020: 138 percent) to 420 thousand units but nevertheless accounted for less than 1 percent of total units sales. Growth in e-bike sales slowed substantially due to weaker consumer demand and a higher base of comparison.
Nevertheless, e-bikes still form less than one third of total industry sales. This means that growth of industry sales will continue to be driven by demand for traditional bicycles.
The European and United States markets combined are the same size as China’s domestic market. This means that economic conditions in the domestic China market have a significant significant effect on the entire industry.
The last time I was around for the double loop in 2022, it was a balmy 40 degrees by the time the ride was underway. The Gatorade flowed freely. My feet and hands were warm. I wore a wind vest and arm warmers. It felt like early spring in Maine. If I had been asked to identify a single, simple, cycling-related and personal measure of how the climate has changed over the past twenty years, this would have been it.
John Burke (CEO of Trek Bicycle Corpoation) understands the Circular Economy better than he did when he was brainstorming on the white board. Mr. Burke is on the right track and he is ready to bring Trek and the entire bicycle industry kicking and screaming into the twenty-first century. If there ever was a time for a serious restructuring of the bicycle industry it is now.
The pandemic ruthlessly exposed the bicycle industry’s dependency on the global supply chain and the weaknesses and vulnerabilities which are encapsulated by N+1 Thought.
The model year convention is the most explicit manifestation of N+1 Thought there is. What better way to sell another bicycle to someone who already has one than to use a date to signal that the latest model year is somehow better than the one the owner already has?
The retailer or brand is making a large investment in a range of models, colors, categories and sizes and hoping that the right person is going to walk in the door within the next twelve months and make a purchase.
The problem is that when the price point selection is broadened, the consumer is overwhelmed with too much choice. A good example of this is the Specialized Diverge gravel bike.
What drives the bicycle industry to repeatedly produce more bicycles and e-bikes each year than the market can absorb? Sunk costs. Economies of scale. Ride it out the door. A bike for every price. Model year.
N + 1 is embarrassingly out of touch. It sounds like the Schafer beer commercial from the 1970s that went “Schafer is the one beer to have when you are having more than one.”
The sale of e-bikes increased 11 percent (2020: 34 percent) to 5.1 million units, but growth slowed substantially due to weaker consumer demand. E-bike sales account for 23 percent of total sales in Europe due to the wider use of bicycles for personal transportation. This helped offset the slowing rate of growth in bicycle sales during the year.
The sale of e-bikes increased 42 percent (2020: 138 percent) to 420 thousand units but nevertheless accounted for less than 1 percent of total units sales. Growth in e-bike sales slowed substantially due to weaker consumer demand and a higher base of comparison.
Nevertheless, e-bikes still form less than one third of total industry sales. This means that growth of industry sales will continue to be driven by demand for traditional bicycles.
The European and United States markets combined are the same size as China’s domestic market. This means that economic conditions in the domestic China market have a significant significant effect on the entire industry.
